Roundhouse Roundup: The Ethnicity Card

A version of this was published in The Santa Fe New Mexican 
April 22, 2012


After a full year of running for Senate, Hector Balderas still finds himself well behind Democratic primary opponent Martin Heinrich in terms of polls and fundraising in the race for U.S. Senate. What does Balderas need to do to finally break out?

Hector Balderas

There’s not a dime’s worth of difference — to use an old George Wallace saying — between Balderas and Heinrich on most of the issues. It’s safe to say that either would be a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate.

The typical underdog response would be to “go negative” against his opponent. Find some questionable vote or quote by Heinrich, blow it insanely out of proportion and run attack ads portraying Heinrich as a dangerous lunatic or traitor to the Democratic cause. It’s an old trick, but sometimes it works.

But something tells me Balderas won’t go that route. For one thing, Republican Senate contender Heather Wilson has a united Republican Party behind her in the GOP primary. (Her only challenger is longshot Greg Sowards, who has never won an election.) If Heinrich does win the primary, Balderas wouldn’t want to be known as someone who launched attacks that ended up helping Wilson win a Senate seat.

But Balderas might have found a way to distinguish himself from Heinrich and tap into a natural Democratic constituency — without scorching the earth. Let’s call it the Ethnicity Card.

We saw it first on Twitter last week. Balderas and his supporters began tweeting about how the Hispanic population is under-represented. The tweets linked to a new Web page called “Hispanics for Balderas.”

There, in a section called “Hector’s Message to Young Hispanics,” he points out economic disparity between Hispanics and the general population, saying, “Now imagine of the difference we could make by electing more Hispanic leaders — people from your community who can fight to make sure we close these gaps.”

Martin Heinrich

Hispanic leaders like, say, Hector Balderas?

Elsewhere on the page, Balderas says, “There are 50.5 million Hispanics living in the United States today. Yet just 7 Hispanic Americans have ever been elected to the United States Senate in our nation’s history.”

The implication: This won’t change if we send Heinrich to the Senate.

“Think of the impact one Hispanic person can have just by running for office,” Balderas says on the page. “While we’ve made a lot of progress on equality in this country — the struggle is still far from over. On many fronts, we’ve stalled.”

Will this strategy be enough to ensure Balderas’ campaign doesn’t stall?

The question of ethnicity in the Senate race has been discussed ever since last year when Bingaman announced he wouldn’t run again. Early in the game, some supporters pointed out that New Mexico hasn’t had a Hispanic senator since Joe Montoya left office in the 1970s.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff told me in April 2011, “The vast majority of Hispanics are Democrats. The Hispanic vote is a high proportion of the votes cast in the Democratic primary.” New Mexico voters tend to vote for candidates of their own ethnicity, he said.

However, Sanderoff said in high-profile races, that’s less true. The more voters learn about the issues and the candidates, Sanderoff said, the more they cast votes based on issues and the candidates’ likeability. But since there’s no real difference on the issues in this case, Sanderoff said Tuesday that it makes sense Balderas would “play up things in his personal background” that set him apart from Heinrich.

“Typically you try to identify a group that’s persuadable,” Sanderoff said. “It’s a perfectly good strategy.”

In a few weeks we’ll know how good it was.

Trujillo Still Won't Debate "The Machine"

A planned political forum for the two Democrats seeking retiring Speaker Ben Lujan’s seat in the state House of Representatives apparently will be a one-man show.

Beware The Machine!

Candidate Carl Trujillo’s campaign manager said Friday that Trujillo had declined the invitation from the forum organizer — the Santa Fe County Democratic Party — almost a month ago. Trujillo is competing against Santa Fe Mayor David Coss for the District 46 House seat.

 On March 22  Trujillo released a statement in which he said, “Because I am passionately committed to restoring honest, open and fair democratic values to our community, I would be happy to participate in a debate with Mayor Coss in a forum that is not run by or beholden to the Democratic Party Machine, and with scheduling and format mutually agreed upon by the two candidates rather than presented fait accompli by that Machine.”

The statement concluded, “... if Mayor Coss would like to attend the ‘debate’ you propose, I expect he'll be debating with himself. But that's probably okay — that's pretty much what the Political Machine here in New Mexico does most of the time anyway.”

Carl Trujillo

Trujillo’s campaign manager Faith McKenna said in an email Friday that the party “made no real, credible efforts to negotiate with us on those concerns.” Therefore, “we proceeded with our own plans for the evening.”

She also said the county party “subsequently released the inaccurate information that we were attending.” Trujillo’s name has been listed in news releases about the forum.

But county Democratic chairman Richard Ellenbeg said Friday that shortly after Trujillo declined the invitation, he emailed the campaign. “The format we use has been used numerous times with success and without complaint,” Ellenberg’s email, released Friday to The New Mexican, said. “If you have some specific suggestions for improvement we would be happy to consider them.”

In early April Ellenberg emailed both Trujillo and Coss about the event’s proposed moderator, KSFR radio’s news director Bill Dupuy. “If there is an objection to him, please let me know,” the message said. But Ellenberg said that he’d never heard back from the Trujillo camp.

David Coss

The event will go on as scheduled even if Trujillo doesn’t show,  Ellenberg said. “At least they’ll know one candidate’s views on the issues,” he said.

Coss said Friday that he will go to the forum, even is he’s the only candidate there. “My campaign tells me I do a better job answering questions than I do giving speeches, anyway,” Coss said. “I’ll be happy to answer whatever they ask.”

Trujillo in 2010 came close to unseating Lujan — who later revealed he couldn’t campaign as hard as he wanted to because he was suffering advanced lung cancer.

During that campaign there was some bad blood between Trujillo and the Democratic establishment. For instance the state party refused to sell him access to a voter database because of a policy of not giving access to challengers of Democratic incumbents.

The forum is scheduled for 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Monday at the Center for Progress and Justice, 1420 Cerrillos Road.

My Favorite Political Story of the Day

It's from the Rio Grande Sun. And it's about a politically-charged (alleged) barroom brawl at the Saints & Sinners in Espanola.

According to The Sun, the row was between a supporter of state Sen. Richard Martinez and a supporter of Rio Arriba County Commissioner Alfredo Montoya, who is challenging Martinez in the Democratic primary for Senate.

Martinez was at the bar on April 11 when the incident occurred.

The Sun quotes Espanola City Councilor Robert Seeds, who was with Elias Fresquez, the Montoya supporter involved. Fresquez got into an argument with Leo Marquez, a field coordinator with Martinez's campaign.

From Seeds' account in the paper:

Before long Fresquez — who is supporting Montoya and who supported the candidate who beat Marquez for a seat on the City Council in March — and Marquez started talking political smack. Marquez blamed Fresquez and Seeds for his loss in the Council election and said Martinez was going to badly beat Montoya in the June primary.

As the exchange became more heated Marquez allegedly asked Fresquez if he wanted to fight. Fresquez ignored the invitation until Marquez grabbed him by the collar, at which point Fresquez punched the other man in the face, dropping him to the floor.

When Marquez fell to the floor, Martinez grabbed a beer bottle and was ready to use it as a weapon until Robert Seeds, (his wife) Laura Seeds and Saints and Sinners employees broke up the fight.

Marquez denies that a physical fight took place at all. And Martinez told The Sun that "when he saw the verbal altercation begin he walked away. He also denied grabbing a bottle and trying to enter the fight."

And people wonder why I love New Mexico politics.

(Full disclosure: I love the Saints & Sinners. It's the first bar in which I ever played music, back in 1977.)

Mary Herrera Back in the News

Former Secretary of State Mary Herrera was the center of not one but TWO stories in this morning's New Mexican.

First, I did an article about the fact that a state district judge has dismissed a whistleblower suit against Herrera filed by her former spokesman James Flores. Flores claimed he was fired in 2010 because he had been interviewed by the FBI about alleged wrongdoing by Herrera.

The firings of Flores and former SOS employee Manny Vildasol and their accusations that Herrera had illegally politicized the office were major factors in Herrera losing the SOS race in 2010.

State District Judge Sarah Singleton threw out the suit because Flores did not respond to a motion by Herrera to dismiss the suit. (Actually, the judge waited until a few weeks after the deadline to dismiss the suit.) Singleton did not rule on Herrera's claim that the state Whistleblower Protection Act is unconstitutional.

A similar suit by Vildasol still is pending.

Nothing ever became of that FBI investigation. Herrera lost her re-election, but she never was charged with any crime.

But (in my best infomercial voiceover voice) wait! There's more!

My colleague Trip Jennings did a story that includes the fact that Herrera recently had her lawyer send a  letter threatening a lawsuit against her old political rival Valerie Espinoza, who is running for a Public Regulation Commission seat.

The letter claims that Espinoza, apparently at a recent candidate forum, made statements about Herrera that were "not based on any facts and were made maliciously, willfully and for the sole purpose of trying to humiliate and defame Ms. Herrera."

Lawyer Rudy Chavez wrote. "You are hereby put on notice that Ms. Herrera's friends and associates in the Democratic Party will be monitoring all of your communications to see if you continue this pattern."

According to Trip's article, "Espinoza acknowledged saying at last week's candidate forum in Eldorado that she had questions about the 2010 Democratic candidate for secretary of state's `integrity and ability to hold that office.' " Espinoza said she didn't mention Herrera's name.

Herrera also forwarded a copy of Chavez's letter to state Democratic Party Chairman Javier Gonzales, telling Gonzales, "Stop ignoring the `Cafeteria Democrat' candidates who decide to support Republican and other party candidates at will. As Chair of New Mexico Democratic Party, I ask you again to do what is right for the Democratic Party."

Herrera isn't running anything, but it looks like she's still in the fray.

Guess Who's NOT Listed in New GOP VP Poll

If you said Gov. Susana Martinez, you win a cookie.

I guess the folks who conducted the latest CNN/ORC poll believe Martinez, who has repeatedly said she's not interested in being vice president. Of course of of the people who were included in the poll have made similar public statements.

The  473 Republicans who were interviewed April 13-15 were asked to rate various potential running mates as favorable or unfavorable.

Of those possible Republican Veeps listed, the one with the best favorable rating was former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Eighty percent of those polled rated her favorably, while only 12 percent said their opinion of her was unfavorable. Only 4 percent said they'd never heard of Rice.

In second place was recently withdrawn GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum. His favorable number was 65 percent, while 19 percent gave the former Pennsylvania senator a thumbs down.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was in third place for favorable numbers -- and the only other candidate who rated above 50 percent. Christie was at 55 percent, with 10 percent unfavorable rating. Twenty five percent of those polled did not recognize his name.

The pollsters then asked "which one would you most like to see Mitt Romney choose as his vice presidential running mate if Romney wins the Republican presidential nomination?"

Rice was the first choice of 26 percent, followed by Santorum, the choice of 21 percent. Christie and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio tied at 14 percent.

Four percent said "someone elese." Maybe these were Martinez supporters.

The margin of error for this poll is 4.5 percent. See the whole poll with crosstabs HERE

It's Official: Heather Had the Most Impressive 1st Quarter Fundraising

I'm back at work and ready to dive into New Mexico politics.

I was just looking at the U.S. Senate race campaign finance figures.

Heinrich

It seems Democratic contender Martin Heinrich has raised nearly four times as much money as his primary opponent Hector Balderas in the first three months of 2012, according to reports filed recently with the Federal Election Commission.

But both Democrats were outpaced by likely Republican Senate nominee Heather Wilson, who last week reported raising nearly $760,000 in the first quarter of this year.

Balderas

Balderas, who is state auditor, raised almost $127,000 between Jan. 1 and March 31 leaving just short of $395,000 in the bank, according to his report.

Heinrich in the first quarter, raised more than $490,000 and had more than $1.55 million cash-on-hand at the end of last month, his campaign said last week.

Balderas’ campaign manager Caroline Buerkle said that Balderas raised more than $100,000 of his total following the pre-primary convention in early March. At that convention, Heinrich, a Congressman from Albuquerque, won the support of about 54 percent of Democratic Party leaders while Balderas got about 45 percent of the vote.

Wilson

Wilson, a former Congresswoman from Albuquerque, reported having $1.45 million cash in hand, slightly less than Heinrich.

Her only GOP primary opponent is dark horse Greg Sowards, a Las Cruces businessman who, according to the Associated Press, reported $100,000 of which was a loan from Sowards himself. Nearly all of Sowards' campaign funds come from the $1.1 Million he has loaned himself. since last year. Sowards had almost $706,000 cash on hand at the end of May.


Lt. Gov. John Sanchez had been running for the Senate seat. However, under-funded and trailing in polls, Sanchez dropped out in February and endorsed Wilson.

UPDATE 8:29 p.m. My earlier version did not have new figures for Sowards. A corrected version used information from The Associated Press for Sowards' numbers.

Sen. Adair NOT Seeking Re-Election

O.K., this one was big enough to get me out of my proverbial recovery bed.

Sen. Rod Adair, R-Roswell, who just a few weeks ago said he would try to hang on to his state Senate seart, announced today that he won't be seeking re-election.

Because of redistricting, Adair was pitted against a fellow Republican incumbent, Sen. Bill Burt.

A 16-year veteran of the Senate, Adair is known as one of the most conservative legislators in recent history. He's also been a champion of government transparency, fighting for such measures as opening conference committees and publishing Senate votes on the Legislature's website.

From his email:

Adair has consulted on numerous Republican campaigns and has provided mapping and demographic analysis during the redistricting process. Through New Mexico Demographic Research he also conducted extensive polling and campaign consulting for state house races in 2010.

Adair said his decision will give him time to concentrate on the "great opportunity we have to help bring about real reform in New Mexico." Adair pointed out that the Democrats not only have 14 incumbent legislators retiring or not seeking reelection, but that there are also 23 incumbent Democrats who are being challenged in primaries. He notes that by stepping down, no incumbent Republican senator will be facing a primary. "This will conserve resources and create a focused and united Republican effort as we move to the general election," he said.

"Republicans have fielded more candidates in more competitive districts than ever before," Adair said, "Now is the time to try to effect change. I have determined that I can be of better service to my community and our state by concentrating my efforts on helping these campaigns be successful. That would bring about lasting change."

"For the first time in my lifetime we have a governor truly committed to change—to real reform—for our state. Because Susana Martinez blocked the Democrats' radically partisan gerrymander, the voters finally have a say in redistricting. As a result, we have the greatest opportunity we've ever had to free the state from more than 80 years of Democrat domination in the legislature. Freeing New Mexico from that yoke would benefit our state for generations to come, in every area of our lives. We could finally reform our tax system, attract industry and medical care professionals, reform our educational system and lay the groundwork for job growth and economic vitality. Now is the time to help effect change from the ground up."

"Just as was the case in the redistricting negotiations, it's clear to me that I can have a greater impact trying to help create a Republican majority, rather than trying to be a part of it. It’s an easy choice to make," Adair stated.

"I have greatly enjoyed my tenure in the State Senate, Adair concluded, "It has been a real honor to serve the great people of Chaves and Lincoln Counties, as well those of North Eddy County during my first term." (Adair was elected in 1996 from Chaves and Eddy Counties, and was redistricted to represent Chaves and Lincoln Counties in 2001.)

Tuesday afternoon Adair filed a statement with the Secretary of State withdrawing from the primary ballot.

UPDATE: 7:04 pm In the original version ogf this post I had the wrong name of Adair's erstwhile opponent. I blame the pain pills. (Tanks to reader Susan!)