Last Friday the Heather Wilson and Martin Heinrich camps released conflicting internal polls. Heinrich's showed him with an eight percentage point lead over Wilson. But Wilson's showed her only one percentage point behind Heinrich -- which represented a dramatic shift and backed up Wilson's contention that she was on the comeback trail.
There have been exceptions, but I generally ignore internal polls. I figured these two cancelled each other out and that the truth was somewhere in between.
But yesterday, (when I was off work), two independent polls came out, and if you can believe them them, Wilson's internal poll was way off and even Heinrich's poll underestimated his lead.
The Rasmussen Report -- which tends to lean Republican -- showed Heinrich 13 percentage points ahead, 52 percent to 39 percent. It was an automated poll on Sept. 27 of 500 likely voters with a 4.5 percent margin of error.
As her campaign has done with other polling companies, Wilson questioned the methodology of the Rasmussen poll. Rob Nikolewski has those comments HERE.
Later in the day, another poll from the We Ask America firm showed Heinrich head by about 11 percentage points. The Democrat was supported by just over 52 percent and Wilson with just under 41 percent. The company did automated interviews with 1,258 likely voters between Sept. 25 and 27. Their margin of error is 2.5 percent.
Both polling firms also asked about the presidential race. Both showed President Obama with a double digit lead over Republican Mitt Romney in the race for New Mexico's five electoral votes.
Rasmussen showed President Obama with 51 percent and Romney with 40 percent of the vote here. "Some Other Candidate" pulled six percent.
We Ask America had Obama at just under 51 percent and Romney at 40.6 percent. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson was right under four percent of the vote.
With numbers like these, I suspect New Mexico won't be seeing many more national polling companies working this state for the rest of the year.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Monday, October 1, 2012
Roundhouse Roundup: How Will Susana Help Heather?
A version of this was published in The Santa Fe New Mexican
Sept. 30, 2012
Gov. Susana Martinez traveled to Tennessee and Texas last week to do some politicking — speaking to a Republican luncheon in Nashville on Wednesday and going to Houston and Austin the next day for a couple of GOP fundraisers.
And, as KOAT first reported last week, in the coming weeks she’s expected to campaign for Mitt Romney in the Hispanic-heavy battleground states of Florida and Nevada.
Meanwhile, there’s been a lot of chatter here in this enchanted former swing state about why Martinez has been relatively invisible on the campaign trail — at least in the U.S. Senate and House races.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Heather Wilson could certainly use the help of the popular governor. Wilson consistently has trailed Democrat Martin Heinrich in that race. Last week, pundit Larry Sabato — director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and head honcho at the Sabato’s Crystal Ball website — changed his Senate map to indicate that the New Mexico Senate race is now “likely Democrat” instead of “leans Democrat,” as it had been for several weeks.
“If I were running Heather Wilson’s campaign, if I were Heather Wilson, I’d be knocking on the governor’s door for a TV endorsement,” said Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff. His recent poll for The Albuquerque Journal showed Martinez’s approval rate at 69 percent.
A television spot featuring Martinez offering a strong endorsement would be ideal for Wilson, Sanderoff said. Another option would be direct mail, featuring the governor’s image and a message touting Wilson, the pollster said.
I recently put the question to the Wilson campaign. “I expect the governor will be helpful,” spokesman Chris Sanchez said in an email.
And actually I do, too.
There’s no real political downside to taking that plunge. Even if Wilson ended up losing, nobody could honestly say that the loss was a reflection on Martinez’s clout.
And as Sanderoff pointed out, the two have a good relationship. Wilson, following the 2010 election, served as the chief of Martinez’s transition team. Martinez didn’t formally endorse Wilson in the Republican primary for the Senate seat. But her preference for Wilson was pretty obvious.
When Lt. Gov. John Sanchez announced he’d be challenging Wilson for the nomination, Martinez promptly released what more than one writer called an “icy” statement. She said Sanchez wouldn’t be given any assignments in her administration beyond the skimpy constitutional duties of the lieutenant governor. (The Sanchez campaign never really recovered from that. He eventually threw in the towel and endorsed Wilson.)
However, some argue that political endorsements don’t make that big of a difference anyway. Consultant Whitney Waite, a veteran of many GOP campaigns in this state, made a strong case for this position on a recent KNME New Mexico In Focus panel I also was on. I agree that endorsements often are overrated — though in this case, as far as Wilson is concerned, it couldn’t hurt.
Spotlight on New Mexico: It’s not as if Martinez has been shy about getting into other races this election cycle. As Sanderoff noted — and I wrote about in last week’s Roundhouse Roundup — Martinez has been quite active in several legislative races, putting the heat on Democratic legislators who have opposed her agenda.
Senate President Pro-tem Tim Jennings of Roswell and Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez of Belen already have been on the receiving end of attack mailers from SusanaPAC, Martinez’s political action committee, headed by her political director, Jay McCleskey.
Whether you agree with the content or tone of the attacks, it makes sense for the governor to focus on legislative races. It’s more of a direct pain to Martinez if Michael Sanchez remains majority leader in the state Senate than if Harry Reid remains majority leader in the U.S. Senate.
Sept. 30, 2012
Gov. Susana Martinez traveled to Tennessee and Texas last week to do some politicking — speaking to a Republican luncheon in Nashville on Wednesday and going to Houston and Austin the next day for a couple of GOP fundraisers.
And, as KOAT first reported last week, in the coming weeks she’s expected to campaign for Mitt Romney in the Hispanic-heavy battleground states of Florida and Nevada.Meanwhile, there’s been a lot of chatter here in this enchanted former swing state about why Martinez has been relatively invisible on the campaign trail — at least in the U.S. Senate and House races.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Heather Wilson could certainly use the help of the popular governor. Wilson consistently has trailed Democrat Martin Heinrich in that race. Last week, pundit Larry Sabato — director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and head honcho at the Sabato’s Crystal Ball website — changed his Senate map to indicate that the New Mexico Senate race is now “likely Democrat” instead of “leans Democrat,” as it had been for several weeks.
“If I were running Heather Wilson’s campaign, if I were Heather Wilson, I’d be knocking on the governor’s door for a TV endorsement,” said Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff. His recent poll for The Albuquerque Journal showed Martinez’s approval rate at 69 percent.
A television spot featuring Martinez offering a strong endorsement would be ideal for Wilson, Sanderoff said. Another option would be direct mail, featuring the governor’s image and a message touting Wilson, the pollster said.
I recently put the question to the Wilson campaign. “I expect the governor will be helpful,” spokesman Chris Sanchez said in an email.
And actually I do, too.
There’s no real political downside to taking that plunge. Even if Wilson ended up losing, nobody could honestly say that the loss was a reflection on Martinez’s clout.
And as Sanderoff pointed out, the two have a good relationship. Wilson, following the 2010 election, served as the chief of Martinez’s transition team. Martinez didn’t formally endorse Wilson in the Republican primary for the Senate seat. But her preference for Wilson was pretty obvious.
When Lt. Gov. John Sanchez announced he’d be challenging Wilson for the nomination, Martinez promptly released what more than one writer called an “icy” statement. She said Sanchez wouldn’t be given any assignments in her administration beyond the skimpy constitutional duties of the lieutenant governor. (The Sanchez campaign never really recovered from that. He eventually threw in the towel and endorsed Wilson.)
However, some argue that political endorsements don’t make that big of a difference anyway. Consultant Whitney Waite, a veteran of many GOP campaigns in this state, made a strong case for this position on a recent KNME New Mexico In Focus panel I also was on. I agree that endorsements often are overrated — though in this case, as far as Wilson is concerned, it couldn’t hurt.
Spotlight on New Mexico: It’s not as if Martinez has been shy about getting into other races this election cycle. As Sanderoff noted — and I wrote about in last week’s Roundhouse Roundup — Martinez has been quite active in several legislative races, putting the heat on Democratic legislators who have opposed her agenda.Senate President Pro-tem Tim Jennings of Roswell and Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez of Belen already have been on the receiving end of attack mailers from SusanaPAC, Martinez’s political action committee, headed by her political director, Jay McCleskey.
Whether you agree with the content or tone of the attacks, it makes sense for the governor to focus on legislative races. It’s more of a direct pain to Martinez if Michael Sanchez remains majority leader in the state Senate than if Harry Reid remains majority leader in the U.S. Senate.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Crystal Ball: NM Senate Seat Now Likely Heinrich
According to the Crystal Ball, New Mexico's U.S. Senate race is no longer "leaning" to Democrat Martin Heinrich ... it's likely to be won by Heinrich.
No, I haven't turned to the occult to make political predictions. I'm talking about Sabato's Crystal Ball , the website of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics honcho Larry Sabato. Yesterday, Sabato's site changed its rating for the New Mexico race and several others.
After mentioning improved outlooks for Democratic Senate candidates in Florida and Ohio, Sabato and his co-authors wrote:
The reference to the national Republicans "abandoning" Wilson is a reference to the fact the the National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled a planned $3 million ad buy for Wilson, who has consistently trailed Heinrich in polls. Wilson insists that her own polls show she has begun a comeback. We'll know for sure in about 40 days.
The Washington Post's political blog The Fix still shows New Mexico "leaning" toward Heinrich, as does Real Clear Politics.
No, I haven't turned to the occult to make political predictions. I'm talking about Sabato's Crystal Ball , the website of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics honcho Larry Sabato. Yesterday, Sabato's site changed its rating for the New Mexico race and several others.
After mentioning improved outlooks for Democratic Senate candidates in Florida and Ohio, Sabato and his co-authors wrote:
The same thing goes for New Mexico, where Republicans have apparently already abandoned their candidate, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson. We’re upgrading Rep. Martin Heinrich’s (D) chances to likely Democratic, which matches our rating of the state in the presidential race.
The reference to the national Republicans "abandoning" Wilson is a reference to the fact the the National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled a planned $3 million ad buy for Wilson, who has consistently trailed Heinrich in polls. Wilson insists that her own polls show she has begun a comeback. We'll know for sure in about 40 days.
The Washington Post's political blog The Fix still shows New Mexico "leaning" toward Heinrich, as does Real Clear Politics.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Gary Johnson, Zombie Fighter
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson just released this, well, unusual video for his campaign.
In it, the former New Mexico governor positions himself as the only candidate who will fight political zombies. Or at least yell at them.
Johnson appears in this video, made in Concord, N.H. But a Youtube disclaimer says it was "Not paid for by any candidate or committee."
Say what you want about this ad, but it's a nice relief from the harsh slasher videos most candidates are running these days.
In it, the former New Mexico governor positions himself as the only candidate who will fight political zombies. Or at least yell at them.
Johnson appears in this video, made in Concord, N.H. But a Youtube disclaimer says it was "Not paid for by any candidate or committee."
Say what you want about this ad, but it's a nice relief from the harsh slasher videos most candidates are running these days.
Monday, September 24, 2012
President Blasts KSFR News Director
The President was John F. Kennedy. There wasn't any KSFR in 1963, but the station's news director, Bill Dupuy, was an Air Force flack.
JFK called him a "silly bastard."
The story surfaced today in The New York Times from one of Kennedy's Oval Office recordings just released by the Kennedy Library.
Dupuy explains it himself at the KSFR site:
The president was angry because he was afraid taxpayers would think the $5,000 spent on the hospital room was a waste of money.
The KSFR site has the actual recording of JFK railing about the "silly bastard" who was endangering the Air Force budget.
I'm jealous. I've been called a lot of names by a lot of politicians, but never a president. Congratulations, Bill.
The story surfaced today in The New York Times from one of Kennedy's Oval Office recordings just released by the Kennedy Library.
Dupuy explains it himself at the KSFR site:
The President was yelling at an air force general about preparations being made at my base just in case a pregnant Jackie Kennedy went into labor on one of their frequent weekend visits to their Cape Cod summer home. The place was a base on Cape Cod where yours truly was serving as an Air Force second lieutenant in charge of media relations. Air Force One regularly landed at my base during the summer so the Kennedys could spend a weekend at Hyannis Port. My job was to handle local media and the White House press corps on these visits.
The air force had secretly cleaned up a wing in a World War II era hospital for Jackie Kennedy just in case. Word got out. The press showed up and air force headquarters in Washington told me to escort photographers and reporters to the hospital wing. I did. I showed them the spartan room, the bed and the rocking chair placed by the bed for JFK's personal use. The reporters insisted I get into the picture to provide a human touch. I did. It was that photo that JFK saw the next day in the Washington Post.
The president was angry because he was afraid taxpayers would think the $5,000 spent on the hospital room was a waste of money.
The KSFR site has the actual recording of JFK railing about the "silly bastard" who was endangering the Air Force budget.
I'm jealous. I've been called a lot of names by a lot of politicians, but never a president. Congratulations, Bill.
Roundhouse Roundup: Working Together in Harmony
A version of this was published in The Santa Fe New Mexican
Sept. 24, 2012
The year 2012 isn’t quite cooked yet, but — shock shock — Gov. Susana Martinez already is running for re-election. Recently, her political action committee sent out a full-color mailer to voters, including one to at least one registered declined-to-state I know.
On the address side of the card, in huge letters, it says, “Something Republicans and Democrats Can AGREE ON.”
On the flip side it says, “Gov. Susana Martinez is working to stop corruption.” Below that: “People have honest disagreements. But there is one thing on which we can all agree — there should be no room for corruption in state government. … Susana Martinez ran for governor to clean up government. From day one, she’s been working to bring Democrats and Republicans together to clean up government and stop corruption.” The part about working to bring Ds and Rs together is outlined in yellow.
The card then touts a law Martinez signed “requiring elected officials found guilty of corruption to forfeit their state pensions.” That’s close, but not quite correct. The pension isn’t required to be forfeited. Under the bill, sponsored by Senate GOP Whip Bill Payne, if a public official is found guilty of a corruption-related charge such as bribery or embezzlement, there would be a hearing to determine how much, if any, the official should be fined. The fine could not be greater than the value of the official’s salary and benefits.
The card is correct that Martinez worked with leaders of both parties to sign it. Carrying Payne’s bill in the House was Democratic floor leader Kenny Martinez (no relation to the governor.) Payne introduced the bill for years, but 2012 was the first time it ever got anywhere.
The mailer goes on to tout an executive order Martinez signed banning her political appointees from lobbying for at least two years and her rule that all political employees submit financial disclosure statements.
“Ending corruption is not a partisan issue,” says a quote above a smiling photo of the governor. “In New Mexico, Republicans and Democrats are showing we can work together.” Running along the bottom of the mailer is the message “Susana Martinez: Bringing people together to clean up government.”
Sending out such a card, even two years before she’s up for re-election, probably is a smart move. She’s starting early to define herself as a tough reformer intent on keeping campaign promises, while at the same time seeking bipartisan consensus and common ground.
Kumbya, my Lord, Kumbya …
Meanwhile, that other PAC, Reform New Mexico Now, headed by Martinez’s political director, Jay McCleskey, is revving up to savagely attack legislative Democrats who have “honest disagreements” with the governor.
Senate President Pro-tem Tim Jennings of Roswell is the first known victim. “I’m lucky, I guess,” Jennings said wryly. The conservative Democrat, who is running for re-election against Republican Cliff Pirtle, told me Thursday that last week people in his district began receiving mailers from the PAC that said he was “More Liberal Than You Think” and blasted him up and down on several issues.
But you can’t say Reform New Mexico Now doesn’t reach out to the other side of the aisle. During the primary they helped a handful of Democrats — including Sen. Phil Griego of San José and Carl Trujillo of Pojoaque — who were running against more liberal challengers. Griego and Trujillo won their primaries.
Earlier this year in the primaries, Susana PAC went nuclear against a Republican Senate candidate in Clovis, rancher Pat Wood, who was running against a candidate Martinez had endorsed. One of Woods’ vile transgressions was making campaign donations to a handful of Democrats who had backed agricultural legislation Woods was pushing. Woods fought back and won the primary.
More lawmakers are bound to feel the sting shortly. According to Reform New Mexico Now’s latest campaign finance report, the committee has more than $305,000 in the bank.
I don’t think much of the campaign material coming out of this PAC will be talking about bringing Democrats and Republicans together.
Sept. 24, 2012
The year 2012 isn’t quite cooked yet, but — shock shock — Gov. Susana Martinez already is running for re-election. Recently, her political action committee sent out a full-color mailer to voters, including one to at least one registered declined-to-state I know.
On the address side of the card, in huge letters, it says, “Something Republicans and Democrats Can AGREE ON.”
On the flip side it says, “Gov. Susana Martinez is working to stop corruption.” Below that: “People have honest disagreements. But there is one thing on which we can all agree — there should be no room for corruption in state government. … Susana Martinez ran for governor to clean up government. From day one, she’s been working to bring Democrats and Republicans together to clean up government and stop corruption.” The part about working to bring Ds and Rs together is outlined in yellow.
The card then touts a law Martinez signed “requiring elected officials found guilty of corruption to forfeit their state pensions.” That’s close, but not quite correct. The pension isn’t required to be forfeited. Under the bill, sponsored by Senate GOP Whip Bill Payne, if a public official is found guilty of a corruption-related charge such as bribery or embezzlement, there would be a hearing to determine how much, if any, the official should be fined. The fine could not be greater than the value of the official’s salary and benefits.
The card is correct that Martinez worked with leaders of both parties to sign it. Carrying Payne’s bill in the House was Democratic floor leader Kenny Martinez (no relation to the governor.) Payne introduced the bill for years, but 2012 was the first time it ever got anywhere.
The mailer goes on to tout an executive order Martinez signed banning her political appointees from lobbying for at least two years and her rule that all political employees submit financial disclosure statements.
“Ending corruption is not a partisan issue,” says a quote above a smiling photo of the governor. “In New Mexico, Republicans and Democrats are showing we can work together.” Running along the bottom of the mailer is the message “Susana Martinez: Bringing people together to clean up government.”
Sending out such a card, even two years before she’s up for re-election, probably is a smart move. She’s starting early to define herself as a tough reformer intent on keeping campaign promises, while at the same time seeking bipartisan consensus and common ground.
Kumbya, my Lord, Kumbya …Meanwhile, that other PAC, Reform New Mexico Now, headed by Martinez’s political director, Jay McCleskey, is revving up to savagely attack legislative Democrats who have “honest disagreements” with the governor.
Senate President Pro-tem Tim Jennings of Roswell is the first known victim. “I’m lucky, I guess,” Jennings said wryly. The conservative Democrat, who is running for re-election against Republican Cliff Pirtle, told me Thursday that last week people in his district began receiving mailers from the PAC that said he was “More Liberal Than You Think” and blasted him up and down on several issues.
But you can’t say Reform New Mexico Now doesn’t reach out to the other side of the aisle. During the primary they helped a handful of Democrats — including Sen. Phil Griego of San José and Carl Trujillo of Pojoaque — who were running against more liberal challengers. Griego and Trujillo won their primaries.
Earlier this year in the primaries, Susana PAC went nuclear against a Republican Senate candidate in Clovis, rancher Pat Wood, who was running against a candidate Martinez had endorsed. One of Woods’ vile transgressions was making campaign donations to a handful of Democrats who had backed agricultural legislation Woods was pushing. Woods fought back and won the primary.
More lawmakers are bound to feel the sting shortly. According to Reform New Mexico Now’s latest campaign finance report, the committee has more than $305,000 in the bank.
I don’t think much of the campaign material coming out of this PAC will be talking about bringing Democrats and Republicans together.
Friday, September 21, 2012
I Sit The Line
I'm off work today, celebrating Larry Hagman's birthday, (81 years young!) but I'll be on TV tonight on KNME's In Focus.
I'm a guest panelist on "The Line" along with Republican PR consultant Whitney Waite, former Democratic Party chairman John Wertheim and New Mexico Law Review editor Sophie Martin. And, of course, host Gene Grant.
We discuss Gov. Susana Martinez’s role in this year’s election, New Mexico’s energy policy and other topics.
The show airs tonight at 7 p.m. and repeats 7 a.m. Sunday.
I'm a guest panelist on "The Line" along with Republican PR consultant Whitney Waite, former Democratic Party chairman John Wertheim and New Mexico Law Review editor Sophie Martin. And, of course, host Gene Grant.
We discuss Gov. Susana Martinez’s role in this year’s election, New Mexico’s energy policy and other topics.
The show airs tonight at 7 p.m. and repeats 7 a.m. Sunday.
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